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Region VII Central Visayas Shows 24% Higher Deaths Than Forecast with 14,969 Excess Deaths. There Were Large Variabilities In % Of Excess Deaths Across Cities / Provinces (18-71%).
Unlike the less developed provinces in Region VII which only had excess death in 2021, Cebu Province and industrialized cities of Cebu, Lapu Lapu and Mandaue had excess deaths in both 2020 and 2021.
Region VII Central Visayas occupies the central section of the Visayas. It includes 4 provinces, namely, Bohol, Cebu, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor, and the 3 highly urbanized cities of Cebu, Lapu Lapu and Mandaue. The population of Central Visayas in 2020 was 8,081,988, or 7.41% of the population of the Philippines.
I have conducted an evaluation of the expected1 and excess2 mortality in Central Visayas Region. Expected mortality rates for 2020 were calculated using the Excel Forecast tool, using 5-year historical all cause mortality data, and compared against the actual 2020 and 2021 deaths. The excel forecast gives a forecast deaths based on historical patterns and a confidence upper and lower bound. The forecast mortality is a more accurate way to assess actual deaths than simply comparing to one or more previous years, because it is adjusted over time and with reference to typical patterns of deaths. Covid-19 deaths are presented with respect to total and excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. All source data are official public domain Philippines Government data3.
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I started this analyses with a month-by-month forecast for the overall Region VII. Actual registered deaths are shown in solid line for 2020 and 2021 against the forecast deaths for the same years based on historical monthly patterns from 2015 to 2019. 2020 showed a rolling pattern of slightly below forecast levels in the from Jan to April, followed by a higher than forecast from June to September, before falling off again to end with annual 2020 deaths very close to the forecast levels.
2021 showed higher than forecast deaths from February through to November (note that the 4th quarter data is is still incomplete).
Summary table comparing excess deaths for 2020 and 2021, as well as Covid-19 attributed deaths is provided.
There are very large differences (multiplier) between excess deaths and Covid-19 in less and more developed provinces (Range 2.0 to 6.9). Could this be due to reporting methodologies and to how Covid-19 deaths were attributed? Could it be related to treatment of Covid-19 cases? There is a trove of information to be delved into by medical and population health scientists. Many lessons ultimately to be learned!
The figure shows the Covid-19 deaths by date of death. Note the big spike in deaths that occurred from 18 to 22 October 2021 (Monday to Friday), which happened to coincide with the vaccination of up to 7000 prisoners in Cebu. Most of these deaths occurred in Cebu Province. I have previously written about that here.
Breakdowns and forecast for the entire region and then by province and industrialized city are provided. Note the light green line that shows a spike in deaths in 2020 only in Cebu Province and her industrialized cities; this coincides with a spike in Covid-19 attributed deaths. There is no such spike in Bohol, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor provinces which have no excess deaths in 2020 and no apparent spike in deaths contributed by Covid-19.
Covid-19 attributed deaths massively increased in 2021 compared to 2020. 2022 deaths are also very low in first 7 months tally. Factor for increase in Covid-19 deaths from 2020 to 2021 was much lower for Cebu, and particularly her industrialized cities (1.2 - 4.5), compared to other areas (20 - >38). Perhaps reflecting reporting methodologies?
While the 2021 deaths in Region VII were higher than forecast in the first half of the year, they did follow the typical monthly pattern. Subsequently deaths soared in July and August then dropped off in September. The September drop off reflects the Cebu Province and industrialized cities drop in registered deaths. The other provinces of Bohol, Negros Oriental and Siquijor all showed further rising deaths in September 2021 before the October drop off which is likely due to incomplete 4th quarter data.
Siquijor did not have any notable rise in registered deaths until August and September 2021! When did the vaccine rollout ramp up in this province?
Note that the excess deaths in Cebu Province and her industrialized cities did not rise considerably until July 2021 and further in August. Their mass excess deaths mostly occurred in only the 3 months from July to September. How could this many excess deaths in such a short time go unnoticed? There were delays in vaccine rollout in Cebu Province, and considerable “hesitancy” was reported in local news. Perhaps these excess deaths did contribute to subsequent hesitancy! The registered deaths drop sharply in September: I do not know if this is a real drop off, or whether the data for September is incomplete (the data for 4th Quarter is incomplete).
Lapu Lapu City had 71.3% excess deaths in 2021! After a small rise in deaths in March 2021 (health care workers and vulnerable persons rollout?), these 1,318 excess deaths occurred mostly between July and September 2021.
Please share this data with all concerned persons. This data is all taken directly from government public domain data. There is no manipulation of the data, simply compilation, organization and direct presentation.
I find the patterns, and particularly the timing, shown in this data to be compelling evidence of the causative role of the Covid-19 vaccinations in the excess deaths reported in 2021. If these vaccines are causing excess deaths, far more deaths than Covid-19, they must be halted immediately pending thorough investigation!
Expected All Cause Mortality are the normal deaths seen in any population. These are due to aging, accidents, typical illness patterns. Expected mortality is typically stable over time, changing only gradually as the population’s demographics change. Year on year changes are typically only a few low single digit % points.
Excess Mortality: these are deaths higher or above that which is expected from the normal historical trends. Typical causes can be war, natural catastrophe, an outbreak of infectious disease. When vulnerable persons in any place die earlier than expected, their deaths will show as an excess mortality. However, excess mortality is followed by a period of lower than usual mortality, while a new vulnerable population builds up. It is highly unusual for excess mortality in any population to be sustained over a long period. Excess mortality is an excellent indicator of overall population health and well being.
All source data are from official Philippines Government data, taken directly and sorted for presentation. Vital statistics on deaths were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (last data release on 23 July 2022).