Region VIII Eastern Visayas had 7,084 Excess Deaths in 2021, 25.9% Higher Than Forecast. All Provinces Showed Excess Deaths in 2021 Ranging from 10 - 42% Above Forecast.
Region VIII Eastern Visayas had 7,084 Excess Deaths in 2021, 25.9% Higher Than Forecast. All Provinces Showed Excess Deaths in 2021 Ranging from 10 - 42% Above Forecast.
Deaths dipped and spiked in different months of 2021, but with the two main spikes typically occurring in May, and August to September! The zigzagging patterns of deaths never return to baseline.
Region VIII is Eastern Visayas. This administrative region covers the 6 provinces of Biliran, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar, and Southern Leyte. It has one highly urbanized city, City of Tacloban, which is in Leyte Province. In 2020 it’s population by census was 4,547,150. This is 4.17% of the entire population of the Philippines.
I have conducted an evaluation of the expected1 and excess2 mortality in the Eastern Visayas Region. Expected mortality rates for 2020 were calculated using the Excel Forecast tool, using 5-year historical all cause mortality data, and compared against the actual 2020 and 2021 deaths. The excel forecast gives a forecast deaths based on historical patterns and a confidence upper and lower bound. The forecast mortality is a more accurate way to assess actual deaths than simply comparing to one or more previous years, because it is adjusted over time and with reference to typical patterns of deaths. Covid-19 deaths are presented with respect to total and excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. All source data are official public domain Philippines Government data3. There is no manipulation of the data, simply compilation, organization and direct presentation of numbers in an easy to understand format.
Overall data for Eastern Visayas is summarized in the first figures. There were a total of 777 deaths attributed to Covid-19, of which 578 occurred in 2021. Eastern Visayas had no excess deaths in 2020, but 7,084 excess deaths in 2021 which was 12.3x higher than their Covid-19 deaths in that year and 25.9% higher than the forecast expected all cause mortality levels. E. Visayas had higher than typical deaths even starting in January 2021. If any residents in E. Visayas would have any ideas on why this might have occurred, please provide your comments below. Deaths increased throughout the year up to the last relatively complete data from September 2021.
Excess deaths for 2020 (none overall) and 2021, deaths as % of forecast, and 2021 Covid-19 Deaths are summarized. The by province excess deaths exceeded Covid-19 deaths by multipliers between 2 and 24! Such a broad range could only make sense if there were different Covid-19 detection and reporting practices across different provinces.
The by-province figures are provided.
Biliran had no excess deaths in 2020. They had no excess deaths until May 2021. There were two high spikes of deaths 2.1 and 2x 2019 levels in June and September with 180 and 187 deaths.
Eastern Samar had higher than typical deaths in January 2021 as well. Again if any residents from that area might know a cause, please comment below. Deaths in this province started climbing upwards in May of 2021 to reach a peak of 2.3x 2019 levels (437 compared to 188 deaths).
Northern Samar had an initial rise in deaths starting in March 2021. Deaths then rose through to September. In current data there were 1,270 excess deaths in 2021 compared to 61 Covid-19 attributed deaths. Something was killing far more people, nearly 41% more people, than usual!
Samar also showed high deaths from the beginning of the year, with higher peaks in May and August 2021. There were 702 excess deaths, 7.6x higher than the Covid-19 attributed deaths in that year.
Leyte and it’s industrialized city Tacloban are next. Tacloban shows a spike of deaths in February. This was apparently mostly limited to the city as there was no overall spike in February in the province. Deaths spike in May in both the city and the province and increased through to September. Excess deaths far exceeded Covid-19 deaths.
Southern Leyte had 1,246 excess deaths compared to their 46 Covid-19 attributed deaths. They also had no excess deaths until May 2021. Peak excess deaths in September were more than double the 2.2x 2019 levels with 502 deaths instead of 225 deaths! This amount of excess deaths, deaths that were not expected to have occurred, would have been devastating to a small community!
These zigzagging death spikes in deaths do not appear natural. I find the patterns, and particularly the timing, shown in this data to be compelling evidence of the causative role of the Covid-19 vaccinations in the excess deaths reported in 2021. If these vaccines are causing excess deaths, far more deaths than Covid-19, they must be halted immediately pending thorough investigation! Health officials need to determine if these spike match with the timing of peak delivery of the Covid-19 vaccines! Causes of these excess deaths, so far above all historical levels must be determined, and action taken to ensure this never happens again!
Please comment and share experience and information in the comments section!
Please share this data with all concerned persons.
Expected All Cause Mortality are the normal deaths seen in any population. These are due to aging, accidents, typical illness patterns. Expected mortality is typically stable over time, changing only gradually as the population’s demographics change. Year on year changes are typically only a few low single digit % points.
Excess Mortality: these are deaths higher or above that which is expected from the normal historical trends. Typical causes can be war, natural catastrophe, an outbreak of infectious disease. When vulnerable persons in any place die earlier than expected, their deaths will show as an excess mortality. However, excess mortality is followed by a period of lower than usual mortality, while a new vulnerable population builds up. It is highly unusual for excess mortality in any population to be sustained over a long period. Excess mortality is an excellent indicator of overall population health and well being.
All source data are from official Philippines Government data, taken directly and sorted for presentation. Vital statistics on deaths were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (last data release on 23 July 2022).