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Region X Northern Mindanao Had No Excess Deaths in 2020. It had 7,337 Excess Deaths in 2021, which is 26.4% Above Forecast Levels. However, These Deaths Happened In 4 Months: July to October.
Soaring deaths starting suddenly! What triggered these? Why are no questions being asked about the relationship between the Covid-19 Vaccines and the Excess Deaths Happening Only in 2021.
Region X Northern Mindanao, is an administrative region in the Philippines in the northern-central section of Mindanao. It covers the 5 provinces of Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental. It has 2 highly urbanized cities which are Cagayan De Oro in Misamis Oriental, and Iligan City in Lanao del Norte. In the 2020 Census its population was 5,022,768, which is 4.61% of the population of the Philippines.
I have conducted an evaluation of the expectedand excess mortality in the Region of Northern Mindanao. Expected mortality rates for 2020 were calculated using the Excel Forecast tool, using 5-year historical all cause mortality data, and compared against the actual 2020 and 2021 deaths. The excel forecast gives a forecast deaths based on historical patterns and a confidence upper and lower bound. The forecast mortality is a more accurate way to assess actual deaths than simply comparing to one or more previous years, because it is adjusted over time and with reference to typical patterns of deaths. Covid-19 deaths are presented with respect to total and excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. All source data are official public domain Philippines Government data.
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There were no excess deaths in 2020. There were 7,084 excess deaths in 2021 which is nearly 26% above the forecast level of 27,749. There have been a total of 1,115 deaths from Covid-19 to date, but only 823 deaths in 2021. The excess deaths in 2021 exceed the Covid-19 deaths by 8.9 times. Thus, the Covid-19 deaths cannot explain the excess deaths.
Here is a summary of the 2020 excess deaths, 1,404 below expected levels, and the 2021 deaths, which are 7,337 above the expected levels. What changed so dramatically between 2020 and 2021? Only 1 thing changed!
Here are the breakdowns by province and their industrial cities.
Bukidnon is a small city. It had no excess deaths in 2020 and only 30 excess deaths in 2021. However, the completeness of the data is questionable. Deaths in Bukidnon started rising in May 2021 were 2x 2019 levels by August 2021. Data for the rest of 2021 appears to be incomplete.
Camiguin has an astounding peak in excess deaths, which rose sharply starting in June 2021 up to 3.6x 2019 levels in August 2021. This is 232 deaths in August instead of 65! This is 165 deaths instead of 51 in September! There were 52% excess deaths in Camiguin, with most of the excess deaths occurring only in the 3 months between July and September 2021!
Lanao del Norte and the City of Iligan are next. Devastating excess deaths. 1,136 in the province plus 1,080 in Iligan, 57.2% and 49.8% above forecast levels. Such tragedy for the people of this province!! Deaths absolutely soared in June and then in August to September 2021 in this province and her city!
Misamis Occidental had only 34 Covid-19 attributed deaths in 2021, but it had 1,595 excess deaths! A small spike in March, a larger spike in June, and a soaring to 3.1x 2019 levels in September. That is 569 deaths in 2021 compared to 346 deaths in 2019!
Misamis Oriental and its city of Cagayan de Oro show a massive spike in deaths in August 2021, both at 2.7x 2019 levels. These are 25.9% and 27.6% higher than the forecast levels for this province and city based on historical data.
These excess deaths are an unfolding tragedy. The excess deaths all occurred in sudden spikes only in particular months. The age breakdowns of deaths will not be released until January 2023 (if the Philippines Statistics Authority follows their traditional schedule).
Excess deaths 10% above normal are already considered exceptional. In this region, the excess deaths range from 0.5% to 57.6%, by province. The same questions are raised, which have been raised for all of the other regions examined.
What has caused these excess deaths?
What started in early 2021 and accelerated as the year went on?
Has there been any evaluation of the excess deaths in relation to the covid-19 vaccine rollouts?
There is nothing that can explain these excess deaths, except the vaccine! The vaccines must be considered guilty until and unless proven innocent. If the vaccine is to blame, rollout must be halted unless and until all concerns are answered.
Please ask questions! Please insist that the provincial health officers record vaccine status and time frame between deaths. Please engage your Governors regarding this data. Dead people cannot be governed. Dead people do not pay taxes or contribute to GDP. It should be in the governors interests to want answers as well!
Please share this information freely, please comment in the comments section below.
Expected All Cause Mortality are the normal deaths seen in any population. These are due to aging, accidents, typical illness patterns. Expected mortality is typically stable over time, changing only gradually as the population’s demographics change. Year on year changes are typically only a few low single digit % points.
Excess Mortality: these are deaths higher or above that which is expected from the normal historical trends. Typical causes can be war, natural catastrophe, an outbreak of infectious disease. When vulnerable persons in any place die earlier than expected, their deaths will show as an excess mortality. However, excess mortality is followed by a period of lower than usual mortality, while a new vulnerable population builds up. It is highly unusual for excess mortality in any population to be sustained over a long period. Excess mortality is an excellent indicator of overall population health and well being.
All source data are from official Philippines Government data, taken directly and sorted for presentation. Vital statistics on deaths were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (using data released on 23 July 2022).