Region XI Davao Had No Excess Deaths in 2020, but 10,801 Excess Deaths in 2021, 3.6x Higher Than Their Reported Covid-19 Deaths. If It Wasn't Covid-19 Causing Deaths, What Was It?
Davao had excess deaths starting even in January 2021. Excess deaths across all provinces rose then spiked in September 2021, before falling in the last 1/4 of 2021. Final data for 2021 is pending.
Region XI Davao is located in the southeastern section of Mindanao. It covers the 5 provinces of Davao de Oro (Compostela Valley), Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental, and includes the highly urbanized city of Davao in Davao Del Sur. In 2020 the Davao Region population was 5,243,536, which is 4.81% of the entire population of the Philippines.
I have conducted an evaluation of the expected1 and excess mortality2 in the Region XI Davao. Expected mortality rates for 2020 were calculated using the Excel Forecast tool, using 5-year historical all cause mortality data, and compared against the actual 2020 and 2021 deaths. The 2021 death data includes the latest PSA release on 2021 vital statistics made on 13th August 2021. The excel forecast gives a forecast deaths based on historical patterns and a confidence upper and lower bound. The forecast mortality is a more accurate way to assess actual deaths than simply comparing to one or more previous years, because it is adjusted over time and with reference to typical patterns of deaths. Covid-19 deaths are presented with respect to total and excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. All source data are official public domain Philippines Government data3.
There were no excess deaths in 2020 except for Davao del Sur which had 99 excess deaths above the forecast level, but which was still within the forecast confidence bounds.
Province overall 2021 data shows 10,801 excess deaths which are far greater (3.6x) than the Covid-19 attributed deaths of 2,989. These deaths are 33.1% above the forecast level of 32,636. Although there were excess deaths starting even in January 2021 for this region, and seen across all provinces, deaths peaked at 2.2x the normal levels in September 2021.
Breakdowns by provinces are provided. All provinces had below or within expected death rates in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021. The excess deaths in 2021, ranged from 8.5 to 47.7% above normal. End of 2021 data is still pending completion and final release. The peak deaths in September range from 1.9 to 3.1x above 2019 levels! This is quite devastating and unprecedented.
Please share this data, and ask questions from you local officials. This level of excess deaths are unprecedented. There must have been some toxic exposure across all providences, across all populations to cause such a high level of excess deaths.
To date there is no official acknowledgement of what that toxic exposure could have been! Of course, my readers, already know what this toxic exposure was and will be sure to avoid further exposure!
Expected All Cause Mortality are the normal deaths seen in any population. These are due to aging, accidents, typical illness patterns. Expected mortality is typically stable over time, changing only gradually as the population’s demographics change. Year on year changes are typically only a few low single digit % points.
Excess Mortality: these are deaths higher or above that which is expected from the normal historical trends. Typical causes can be war, natural catastrophe, an outbreak of infectious disease. When vulnerable persons in any place die earlier than expected, their deaths will show as an excess mortality. However, excess mortality is followed by a period of lower than usual mortality, while a new vulnerable population builds up. It is highly unusual for excess mortality in any population to be sustained over a long period. Excess mortality is an excellent indicator of overall population health and well being.
All source data are from official Philippines Government data, taken directly and sorted for presentation. Vital statistics on deaths were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. Latest all cause mortality data was released on 13 August 2022. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (using data released on 23 July 2022).