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Region XII Soccsksargen Had 9,412 Excess Deaths 40.1% Above Forecast Levels. It Only Had 1,059 Deaths Attributed to Covid-19.
In these provinces, excess deaths ranged from 28 to 57% above forecast levels. Excess deaths exceeded covid-19 blamed deaths by multipliers ranging from 3.4 in General Santos to 53.6x in Sarangani.
Region XII is SOCCSKSARGEN. This administrative region is in the southern-central section of Mindanao. It includes the provinces of Cotabato (North Cotabato), Sarangani, South Cotabato, and Sultan Kudarat. General Santos City, in Cotabato, is its highly urbanized city. The 2020 Census showed a population of 4,901,486, which is 4.50% of population of the Philippines.
I have conducted an evaluation of the expected1 and excess2 mortality in Region XII Soccsksargen. Expected mortality rates for 2020 were calculated using the Excel Forecast tool, using 5-year historical all cause mortality data, and compared against the actual 2020 and 2021 deaths. The excel forecast gives a forecast deaths based on historical patterns and a confidence upper and lower bound. The forecast mortality is a more accurate way to assess actual deaths than simply comparing to one or more previous years, because it is adjusted over time and with reference to typical patterns of deaths. Covid-19 deaths are presented with respect to total and excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. All source data are official public domain Philippines Government data3.
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Soccsksargen Region had no overall excess deaths in 2020, even while it had had only 129 Covid-19 attributed deaths.
Covid-19 deaths rose rapidly in 2021, starting most obviously in May of 2021 and resulted in a total of 1,059 Covid-19 Deaths. There were 8.2x more covid-19 deaths in 2021 than 2020. The deaths rose concurrent with the covid-19 vaccination rollout.
There were 9,412 excess deaths, with all provinces showing massive peak deaths in September 2 or more times higher than the 2019 deaths. Excess deaths overall were 8.9x higher than Covid-19 attributed deaths.
Data is summarized for the Region and its provinces. Some provinces did have excess deaths even in 2020, though most did not. However, they all had soaring deaths in 2021! What a tragedy!
Cotabato had excess deaths throughout 2021, with deaths peaking at 2.4x in September. That is 1,416 deaths in September 2021 compared to 597 deaths in 2019, nearly 1000 excess deaths in one single month!
Deaths in Sarangani in both 2020 and 2021 were above forecast levels. Sarangani’s excess deaths in 2020 cannot be due to Covid-10 as there were only 15 Covid-19 deaths in that year. In 2021 there were only 23 Covid-19 deaths but 1,232 excess deaths, nearly 54x higher. Excess deaths in 2021 were high all year, and even after the 2.2x September peak were still at 1.4x above 2019 levels even in December 2021. Data in still likely incomplete and deaths will still rise. Whatever was killing people in both years, it was not Covid-19!
Sultan Kudarat had no excess deaths in 2020, but showed excess deaths for the entire year of 2021. In 2021 it had only 63 deaths attributed to covid-19, but 1,508 excess deaths, 24x higher. In September it had 722 deaths, 418 higher than the 306 in September 2019.
South Cotabato Province did not have excess deaths in 2020. However, its industrialized city General Santos did have excess deaths. The lockdowns in an industrial city, with the accompanying worsening of poverty and high stress, combined with very limited movement may have contributed to deaths.
For 2021, South Cotabato and General Santos both had the same pattern of excess deaths with an initial spike in April to May followed by a massive spike in September 2021. Both had higher covid-19 attributed deaths (population density based, diagnostic procedures, or treatment approaches?) in 2021 than other provinces, but still many magnitudes lower than their excess deaths.
The deaths in Region XII cannot be attributed to Covid-19, as there were not enough Covid-19 deaths to explain them. The massive spike in excess deaths in September in 2021 was not matched by a big spike in covid-19 deaths in that same month.
Some toxic assault, distributed across the entire population and accelerating from March though to September must be identified as the cause of these excess deaths.
The Covid-19 vaccines are the most obvious culprits. They must be considered guilty until and unless they are proven blameless. Given the growing world wide patterns of injuries and deaths, and excess deaths, tied intricately with vaccine delivery, the vaccines are unlikely to be exonerated. Instead they are being proven as causal. They must be stopped to stop the accumulating harm. The recovery and healing, and may reparations, need to begin!
Expected All Cause Mortality are the normal deaths seen in any population. These are due to aging, accidents, typical illness patterns. Expected mortality is typically stable over time, changing only gradually as the population’s demographics change. Year on year changes are typically only a few low single digit % points.
Excess Mortality: these are deaths higher or above that which is expected from the normal historical trends. Typical causes can be war, natural catastrophe, an outbreak of infectious disease. When vulnerable persons in any place die earlier than expected, their deaths will show as an excess mortality. However, excess mortality is followed by a period of lower than usual mortality, while a new vulnerable population builds up. It is highly unusual for excess mortality in any population to be sustained over a long period. Excess mortality is an excellent indicator of overall population health and well being.
All source data are from official Philippines Government data, taken directly and sorted for presentation. Vital statistics on deaths were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data with latest release for 2021 deaths on 13 August 2022. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (last data release on 30 July 2022).