The Provinces and Industrialized Cities in Region VI Western Visayas Have Excess Deaths in 2021 Ranging from 12 to 61% Above Forecast Levels.

The patterns of death provide evidence of an external cause for the premature loss of lives of 15,548 persons in this region.

Region VI Western Visayas covers the 6 provinces of Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Guimaras, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental, as well as 2 highly urbanized cities of Iloilo and Bacolod. Its population in the 2020 Census was 7,954,723, which is 7.30% of the population of the Philippines.

I have conducted an evaluation of the expected¹ and excess² mortality in the Western Visayas Region. Expected mortality rates for 2020 were calculated using the Excel Forecast tool, using 5-year historical all cause mortality data, and compared against the actual 2020 and 2021 deaths. The excel forecast gives a forecast deaths based on historical patterns and confidence upper and lower bounds. The forecast mortality is a more accurate way to assess actual deaths than simply comparing to one or more previous years, because it is adjusted over time and with reference to typical patterns of deaths. Covid-19 deaths are presented with respect to total and excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. All source data are official public domain Philippines Government data³.

Western Visayas had no excess deaths in 2020 when deaths were 2,814 deaths below forecast levels, and even below the forecast confidence bounds. Deaths were 28.2% above forecast levels in 2021. This was 15,548 excess deaths starting in April 2021, but mostly occurring between May and October of 2021. The end of year data is still incomplete and had not been released by the Government. Deaths build accross the year, with peak deaths occurring in September when there were 9,413 deaths (2.1x higher than 2019 levels of 4,565 deaths). In 2021 there were 4,205 deaths attributed to Covid-19. This was 3.7x lower than the excess deaths. Covid-19 deaths cannot explain these excess deaths. Therefore, many of these must have been caused by some other external factor which started by March/April and which accelerated as the year progressed.

The summary table of the excess deaths, deaths by province, and Covid-19 deaths in 2021 are set out.

Monthly actual deaths, and forecast mortality for 2020 and 2021 for each province are set out. Every single province had normal, or below normal, deaths in 2020. They all had soaring excess deaths in 2021. The start of excess deaths patterns were different in different provinces with some showing the first major death excesses in March, others in April, others in May, and yet others in June.

What could have had such a different rollout in different locations? Residents in these provinces may be able to corroborate the dates of Covid-19 Vaccine rollouts in these areas.

Iloilo province and Iloilo City are shown. Iloilo City had a different pattern of excess deaths, with higher death rates happening earlier than in the rest of the province. Iloilo City had 34.4% excess deaths, much higher than the 23.9% in the smaller cities and rural areas of the province.

Bacolod City, the industrialized city in Negros Occidental showed an earlier spike in deaths (March to April) than the initial May spike outside of the city. Could the city have been prioritized for certain interventions before other areas? Bacolod City also showed the highest excess deaths for this region as 60.9% way above the 33.4% for the rest of that province. We know that the city folk were prioritized to receive the intervention!

These excess deaths are evidence of a genocide being delivered in the form of the Covid-19 vaccines. There is no other feasible explanation. The patterns of deaths exhibited are not natural and do not follow natural patterns.

As previously discussed these deaths are the tip of the iceberg of the ill health and disability inflicted on the Filipino people in 2021. These excess deaths are people who should not have died! Why did they die? Why is there no questioning of these patterns?

I apologize that these recent posts are repetitive in that the same patterns are presented in every singe province. However, it is important to personalize the devastation for each province’s citizens and residents to see what is happening in their own home, for them to start asking questions about unexpected and unexplained deaths, and for them to have the information to present to their leaders, to demand answers.

Please read, please share, please demand answers from your leaders.

1. Expected All Cause Mortality are the normal deaths seen in any population. These are due to aging, accidents, typical illness patterns. Expected mortality is typically stable over time, changing only gradually as the population’s demographics change. Year on year changes are typically only a few low single digit % points.

2. Excess Mortality: these are deaths higher or above that which is expected from the normal historical trends. Typical causes can be war, natural catastrophe, an outbreak of infectious disease. When vulnerable persons in any place die earlier than expected, their deaths will show as an excess mortality. However, excess mortality is followed by a period of lower than usual mortality, while a new vulnerable population builds up. It is highly unusual for excess mortality in any population to be sustained over a long period. Excess mortality is an excellent indicator of overall population health and well being.

3. All source data are from official Philippines Government data, taken directly and sorted for presentation. Vital statistics on deaths were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (last data release on 23 July 2022).