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The WHO Criteria to Confirm AEFI Causality are met!
The Covid-19 vaccines are the only plausible cause for the excess deaths and injuries being seen! The rollout must be halted, and measures to assist the injured and the families of the dead started!
Causality is defined as the relationship between two events, whereby the second outcome cannot occur without the input of the first. The current major question is whether or not the covid-19 vaccines are causing the unprecedented excess deaths and rates of severe illness being seen internationally. We must not get the answer wrong!
Humans are complex creatures, and our health and health outcomes are multifactorial; conclusions of cause and effect from vaccination for individual cases can sometimes be hard to draw. In the Philippines the FDA Pharmacovigilance team have received reports of nearly 100,000 Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI), and just over 2,000 deaths up to the 20th of March 20221. These weekly reports continue to state in their conclusions that the majority of the observed AEFI are either mild or coincidental.
It is possible to draw conclusions of cause and effect with the examination of cases, data, and outcomes on a population basis.
Worldwide, doctors, insurance companies, researchers, and population scientists are raising the alarms over their observations of considerable excess deaths, and greatly increased incidence of illness particularly clotting-related, cardiovascular, strokes, neurological, autoimmune, and cancers, among others. Officially, some of these are attributed to covid-19, others to lockdowns, others to stress, and some are ignored. Certainly, the numbers of excess deaths greatly exceed the number of deaths that can be attributed directly to Covid-19. Further, these deaths and illness and are being seen among age cohorts which have not seen much of a death or injury toll from natural covid infection.
Here is what Covid-19 attributed deaths vs excess deaths looks like in the Philippines, using Department of Health (DOH) official Covid-19 deaths, Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) reported deaths, and 2021 forecast deaths (using 2015-2019 historical data). Excess deaths by far exceed reported covid-19 deaths.
The Philippines Center for Population and Development discussed the unprecedented occurrence of soaring deaths and plunging births in the Philippines in 2021, in their seminar May Konek Ba? Births, Deaths, and the Pandemic last 25th February 2022. They could not identify any clear cause for the massive demographic changes, vaguely referred to covid-19 and lockdowns, and ignored the fact that during the first year of lockdowns in 2020 no excess deaths were seen at all. When questioned if there was link with the vaccination rollout, they stated resolutely that there was not and that any apparent relationship was certainly both coincidental and spurious.
It is curious though, that the excess deaths started and increased as the vaccine doses rollout increased. The currently available reported death data is only relatively complete up to October 2021, which is before the all out push to inject every person in the Philippines, got underway. Another PSA update is due within the next few days and should include relatively complete November 2021 data for evaluation.
The Bradford Hill Criteria are an accepted set of 9 criteria for assessing causality of an association in epidemiology [McCullough discussed this towards the end of a recent presentation2]. In 2019 the WHO provided an updated criteria3 specifically for use in determining causality of AEFI from vaccines. They state “Causality assessment usually will not prove or disprove an association between an event and the immunization. It is meant to assist in determining the level of certainty of such an association.”
For population level assessment of causality they list 6 criteria, of which only the first Temporal Relationship criterion is absolutely essential. I list and discuss these, and would argue that all are abundantly met.
Temporal relationship. The vaccine exposure must precede the occurrence of the event. This is the most critical of the criteria. I would argue that based simply on temporal relationships as discussed below, cause could already be concluded.
There is both a temporal relationship between the start of excess deaths in the Philippines and the start of vaccination rollout and there is a magnitude effect whereby the more vaccines are given the higher are the excess deaths being seen. The Philippines had no excess deaths in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic when the entire population were under strict lockdowns. There were also no excess deaths in January 2021 when no vaccines were being given. A small excess deaths was seen in February, coincidental with when the early and unofficial vaccinations started. From March, with the formal rollout, a monthly escalation in excess deaths is observed. The chart below shows the excess deaths plotted by month (October 2021 and onwards data is still incomplete), and compared to 2019 and 2020.
This is what the current vaccine rollout in the Philippines looks like. If the link between rollout and vaccine doses follows the apparent trending, the coming months’ death data is going to be devastating. Booster rollout started in November 2021.
Cumulative Vaccine Doses and Cumulative Excess Deaths follow a disturbingly parallel upwards trajectory.
Internationally we can also see that there is a temporal relationship between the receipt of vaccines and deaths / injuries. Below are two plots extracted from the US AE reporting system VAERS4. The top one shows a massive death signal for 2021 and into 2022, concurrent with the vaccine rollout, vs. all the previous death reports to that system since 1986.
The second plot show the temporality of the deaths in days post vaccination. The majority of deaths are occurring primarily within 48 hours, and then further within the first two weeks. We cannot assess such temporality in the Philippines yet (though it is abundantly clear from individual cases described to our team) because the DOH, FDA, and PSA have not made this information available.
Strength of association. The association should meet statistical significance to show that it was not just a chance occurrence. I have not done statistical significance evaluation. However, when excess deaths increase from a variance of +/- a few percentage points in all available historical data up to +44% (average for Jan - September 2021) with 110% excess in September 2021 (2.1 x the expected deaths), significance is beyond question.
Dose-response relationship: increasing exposure increases the risk of the AEFI occurring. This is being observed internationally (no data to assess here yet, aside from anecdotal cases). AEFIs increase with each dose given.
Consistency of evidence: similar or the same results are seen in different settings. Yes! The same patterns and types of injuries and deaths are being seen worldwide.
Specificity: the vaccine is the only cause of the event that can be shown. Yes! This is being widely seen. Deaths, new illness, sudden worsening of health conditions, all occurring shortly after vaccination with no other changes or possible causes, or rational logical explanations.
Biological plausibility and coherence: the association between the receipt of the vaccine and the adverse event should be plausible and should be consistent with the current knowledge of the biology of the vaccine and the adverse event.
C-19 Vaccines, although their full composition have yet to be disclosed, contain varying contents and concentration of active ingredients. Originally it was thought that the vaccine would stay at the injection site. This is now proved untrue; the vaccine rapidly spreads throughout the body following injection, and has been found in all tissue types examined.
The body of research explaining the concerns and consequences continues to grow exponentially. Just a few of the areas of concern and biological plausibility are touched on below.
Viral vector and mRNA vaccines are designed to co-opt the recipient’s own cells to make spike proteins. These coded spike proteins are not exactly the same as the natural viral spike proteins; they have been stabilized to help them evade immune detection and to persist in the body. Unfortunately it is now known that the spike proteins are the key viral component causing sickness / pathogenicity in the natural infection. Vaccine induced spike protein levels are known to exceed spike protein levels seen in the natural infection. They may then be expected to cause even more damage than seen during a natural illness and it’s recovery.
Duration of spike protein production by the body is unknown. It has been observed as ongoing for as long as any research study has yet lasted (that was 3 months), to date. Of course, each subsequent dose of vaccine will boost spike protein production, and may be expected to enhance possible damage.
The spikes are implicated in abnormal blood clotting and bleeding disorders, which have been clearly and widely identified and recognized as AEFIs.
The vaccine recipient’s body produces spikes in an uncontrolled manner from whichever cells the vaccine coopted. Those cells, be they blood vessel, brain, liver, kidney, heart, ovaries, testes, have all become spike producers and by this action enemies of the immune system to be destroyed. Too bad if function is destroyed as well. Heart attacks, strokes, dementias, kidney, liver, and multi-organ failures are all described.
The vaccines contain adjuvants which can be toxic and cause immune over reaction, some contain lipid nano-particles with toxic and allergenic fats. Allergic reactions, and autoimmunity is described.
Changes in DNA repair and suppression of immune system surveillance have been linked with recurrence of latent infections, and recurrence of old and development of new cancers. Discussions of VAIDS (vaccine induce immune deficiency syndrome) and immune ‘exhaustion’ have been increasingly appearing in literature.
Pfizers’ data release provided 9 pages of possible and plausible conditions to be looked out for. Their clinical trial data showed more deaths and illness in the vaccine group vs. their control group.
There absolutely is biological plausibility for the types of injuries, and causes of deaths being reported.
By my assessment, these criteria to determine causality are all met, the vaccines are clearly implicated in the democide now in progress.
Our World in Data reports that to date 10.77 Billion Doses of Covid-19 vaccine have been injected, with 64.2% of the world’s population having received at least 1 dose. If there are serious problems with these products (there are!), the future of the human race is at stake!
Shouldn’t WHO be responsible to call this out already? When will our governments / the authorities act? If they will not or cannot, we need to call this out and act!
Covid Under Question, 25th March 2022, Discussion on Bradford Hill Criteria applicability to C19 Vaccines: Dr Peter McCullough https://ruumble.com/vyb162-covid-under-question-dr-peter-mccullough.html
Causality assessment of an adverse event following immunization (AEFI): user manual for the revised WHO classification second edition, 2019 update. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2019. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. https://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/publications/CausalityAssessmentAEFI_EN.pdf