2023 and Early 2024 All-Cause Mortality Shows a Trending of Rising Registered Deaths Across Every Region of the Philippines with no recovery or pull forward effect from the excess mortality in 2021.
There are so many local reports of sudden and unexpected young deaths, and many cancer deaths, even for children. Today while walking home, I passed a youngish man collapsed and unconscious.
He was surrounded by security personnel cradling him and waiting for medical assistance. I pray he survived! The first time in my 50+ years to see such a sight.
Following my updating the Philippines by-region birth vital statistics earlier this week, this stack is the counterpart article on by-region all-cause mortality for the Philippines. All data presented is taken directly from Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) Vital Statistics for registered deaths. PSA has made no adjustment made for expected under-registration, and this data reflects registered deaths which occurred in 2023 and which were received by PSA as of 31 August 2024.
I provided an overall summary of the 2023 Vital Statistics Final Report in this linked stack.
PSA reports that most deaths were registered ‘on time’, ie. within 30 days of death, though BARMM was an outlier with higher late registrations. Death registrations are first made with regional PSA offices before being sent to and compiled in the Manila PSA office. Apparent delays in data reporting might possibly be due to delays in transmission from PSA satellite to central office.
% of total deaths by region is shown in this figure from PSA. I assume, but haven’t checked, that death % generally follows the population of each region.
Historical Deaths by Region is presented graphically and shows that 2023 deaths rose by 2.2% compared to 2022.
Summarized average monthly deaths by region from 2019 to 2023 and with January 2024 provisional data is tabulated. The January 24 data is for registered deaths compiled by the central PSA as of 30 November 2024. After 10 months of collection, early 2024 data should be substantially complete; but with small further rises expected as 2024 data compilation will continues through to the end of the 3rd quarter of 2025.
Most regions had an increase in mortality (red) between 2022 and 2023, with the largest increase being 5.6% in Ilocos (Region 1). All regions had increases in mortality in 2023 compared to 2019. The BARMM increase of 124% over this period may represent incomplete data collection in 2019 rather than a true large magnitude increase from 2019 to 2023.
January 2024 registered deaths compared with January 2023 Registered deaths currently show an increase in 5 regions: NCR, CAR, and Regions 1, 3 and IVa. The highest increase was for CAR1 which had 6.8% increase.
Philippines overall data shows increasing deaths over time. 2024 data is higher in the first quarter and then drops off by April to May due to incomplete data.
The by region data from 2019 to 2023 is plotted and also showing preliminary (still incomplete) 2024 data.
In National Capital Region, preliminary 2024 data shows that April and May deaths exceed all prior years except the catastrophic 2021 which had 24.7% excess deaths. If NCR trending is any indication of mortality patterns, national mortality in 2024 will end up higher than in 2023!
NCR stands out as having higher deaths in 2020 than 2019, with a big death peak in July and August 2020 when pre-vaccine Covid-19 hysteria was at a peak. This may be related to hospital protocols in the metro. Such a spike was only seen in industrialized regions, while less developed regions (with less access to medical care?) had lower deaths in 2020.
The death spikes in 2021 and early 2022 match with the rollout of different phases of the vaccination programs. The early 2021 spike matching rollout to elderly, vulnerable and health care-workers and the second (started July 2021) and third major spikes (Dec 2021 to Jan 2022) particularly matching the rollout of the Janssen Vaccines which was done in two discrete and separate batches.
2024 data appears to still be very incomplete for many regions.
Central Luzon had an astoundingly high death spike in September 2021, 3x typical September rates. 2021 deaths were nearly 60% higher than 2020 deaths!
Region IVa stands out as having higher deaths in 2020 than in 2019. Early 2024 deaths (Jan-May) are above 2023 monthly average deaths. Calabarzon also had an astoundingly high death spike in September 2021.
Region VII, Central Visayas, 2020 deaths were higher than 2019 levels.
Finally, following are Philippines Births and Deaths, and Natural Increase over time. 2023 is the 4th year with a natural population increase below 1 million. The trending continues strongly downwards.
Cordillera Autonomous Region encompasses 6 provinces in northern Central Luzon including Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, and Mountain Province.
Shortly after the death jab rollout, I was on Caltrain to SF and the train stopped to take off a guy having a heart attack. That literally never happened before in my 20+ years of riding that train. They'd run over people occasionally, but never stopped because of heart attacks for some reason. Maybe because stops are frequent enough that anyone starting to feel ill would just leave the train.
I believe the "medicine" was dispensed with population concerns. But that's a theory, a viable suspicion without meeting the burden of proof. What isn't so much theoretical is that every medicine has side effects whether natural-herbs or chimeric. This is seems to be the first perfect medicine per advocates whether laity or professional which alone should spark critical thinking. Denial runs deep. My fam tries to hide news of people in our lives getting cancer, neuropathies etc or even dying because I used to ask when did symptoms manifest. They figured out where I was going. Someone just slipped with terrible information that a dear fam friend has lung cancer. I questioned and F/o when she was diagnosed which I knew before questioning. I tricked the loose lipped informer who was gritting her teeth knowing that I know that she knows that I know that she know that I know of a catalitic component so there was no point in mentioning"the medicine" So I proffered a theory of excessive masking. When the room goes eerily quiet I know I won the debate but not sure I influenced due diligence going forward.
Sigmund Freud, many post modernists on the left and sadly on the right disregard his work. Obviously if he was self secured in his own skin he never would have so endeavored but his mental condition not withstanding he developed a a "Death Drive" theory in which we have a self-destructive component in that we live to die.
Everyone I know worried about over population seems to like the medicine, the masking, the lockdowns.