Australian Bureau of Statistics have Released the February 2023 All-Cause Mortality. 2023 Excess Deaths Currently Running at 11.2% (2,758 Persons Unexpectedly Lost).

Baseline mortality is computed based on 2017-2019 and 2021, excluding 2020 and 2022 data. There has been no respite from Australia's declining health as evidenced by ongoing excess deaths since 2019.

The just released Provisional Mortality Statistics for Jan - Feb 2023, show that Australians are continuing to die well in excess of historical levels in 2023, with the reported 27,397 deaths in January (+13.3%) and February (+8.9%), together exceeding the historical baseline

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by 2,758 souls (11.2%). All data is raw data, with no adjustment for changing population rates.

Considering that excess mortality is an overall indication of population health, the excess mortality data does not reflect positively on the wellbeing of Australians even since 2019, prior to the pandemic, which was an excess deaths year in Australia (and the Philippines, and I presume in some other countries, perhaps due to being a particularly “bad” flu year).

In the pandemic years, starting in 2020 and up to February 2023, there has been an unprecedented 39,127 excess deaths, without any recovery to prior baselines. This data will get worse as late registrations are accounted. If 2023 death trending continues, it will be better than 2022, but still far worse than 2021.

Excess Deaths by Age and Gender

I used the by-week data to analyze the deaths by gender and age. This data is slightly different than the by month totaled data, as it only includes 8 direct calendar weeks. Baseline average used consists of average deaths from 2017-2019, and 2021. The ABS has excluded 2020 and 2022 deaths, claiming they fall outside of usual death patterns.

Younger men appear to be having some recovery in excess deaths for persons 64 and younger. However, older folks are faring terribly and still dying well in excess (20+%) of baseline levels.

Young women aged 0-44 have a still have slight excess deaths, though their excess deaths in January 2023 were mostly counterbalanced by a decrease in February deaths. Women 65 and above are not faring well but are dying at lower excess rates than their male counterparts.

Covid-19 Deaths Can’t Explain Excess Deaths; Dementia, Diabetes, Other Cardiac Conditions, and Cancer are above Pre-2022 Baselines.

In January 2023 there were 705 deaths reported as due to COVID-19 and certified by a doctor. This dropped to 214 in February 2023, giving a total of 919 deaths for 2023. Covid-19 was thus attributed an equivalent 33% of the excess deaths and 3.3% of all deaths. Covid-19 cannot explain all of the excess deaths, and we also must not forget that for most of 2022 and 2023 Covid-19 has been typically mild and non-life-threatening, except to persons who were already critically ill from other causes.

The ABS report summarizes other doctor certified causes of death, extracted below for easy reference: -

• Deaths due to dementia including Alzheimer's disease in January and February 2023 were 14.8% above baseline average, but below the same period in 2022.

• Deaths due to diabetes in January and February were 24.9% higher than baseline average, but below the same period in 2022.

• Deaths due to other cardiac conditions were 15.4% higher than baseline average, and 2.8% higher than the same period in 2022.

• Cancer deaths in January and February 2023 were 4.7% above baseline average, but below the same period in 2022.

• Deaths due to ischaemic heart disease in January and February 2023 were 8.1% below baseline, and lower than in the same period in 2022.

• Deaths due to cerebrovascular disease in January and February 2023 were 5.7% below baseline average and also lower than the same period in 2022.

• Deaths due to respiratory diseases where slightly above baseline, while influenza and pneumonia were below baseline. All rates were lower than in 2022.

Will there be an Investigation?

Surely an investigation into the causes of the excess deaths would be warranted.

On 23th March 2023, a request for inquiry into excess deaths was tabled by Senator Ralph Babet. The vote was abstained with 37 abstentions, 35 No and 4 Ayes.

On 24th March 2023, the Australian senate voted 30/29 NOT TO CONDUCT any inquiry into excess deaths.

Discussed by Dr. McMillan on May 24, 2023.

Maybe this latest ABS data will trigger a reconsider of the excess deaths. Australians certainly need answers, and their deteriorating health needs actions!

1. ABS are excluding 2020 and 2022 mortality from the 2023 baseline data. While 2022 data is understandably excluded with registered deaths being far (15.5%) above historical levels, 2020 registered deaths are unexceptional and appear to be within range of typical variations.