After no excess deaths in 2020 and Jan/Feb of 2021, excess deaths soared through to October 2021 (Oct/Nov/Dec data preliminary) with excess deaths ranging from 4.3% in Tarlac to 57% in Angeles City!
And after all these excess deaths, they still believe in the jabs. I can't go back to my house in the Philippines because of my vax status. It is bloody ridiculous.
can you plot excess deaths from maybe 1960 to 2019 or 2020? we have no idea what excess deaths should look like historically. if it's constant, zero, etc....
I have used the 5 year death data to plot forecast deaths for 2020 and 2021. The forecast tool using 5 year data is considered accurate and reliable.
We also know (and can demonstrate) that deaths are typically very stable over time, thought they increase with population growth, and slowly with changes in demographics, for example aging population. For the entire Philippines I have looked at 10 year death data as well. It is very stable and varies only by low single digit % points over time. An increase in deaths of 10% over typical levels is already considered devastating. Current increases are far higher!
Forecast uses excel forecast. It is a recognized and widely used tool. It is considered a valid approach using 5 year historical data (which is what I have available, broken down by province from PSA).
And after all these excess deaths, they still believe in the jabs. I can't go back to my house in the Philippines because of my vax status. It is bloody ridiculous.
what is excess death?
Excess Deaths mean deaths higher than usual.
Every population has a normal / typical death rate. Excess deaths are those that are not normal, typical, and expected.
Normal death rates are referred to historical death data.
can you plot excess deaths from maybe 1960 to 2019 or 2020? we have no idea what excess deaths should look like historically. if it's constant, zero, etc....
I have used the 5 year death data to plot forecast deaths for 2020 and 2021. The forecast tool using 5 year data is considered accurate and reliable.
We also know (and can demonstrate) that deaths are typically very stable over time, thought they increase with population growth, and slowly with changes in demographics, for example aging population. For the entire Philippines I have looked at 10 year death data as well. It is very stable and varies only by low single digit % points over time. An increase in deaths of 10% over typical levels is already considered devastating. Current increases are far higher!
what is the forecast based on?
is the forecast usually accurate?
do death rates change or are they constant?
Forecast uses excel forecast. It is a recognized and widely used tool. It is considered a valid approach using 5 year historical data (which is what I have available, broken down by province from PSA).